Confronting the government and the opposition can take weeks or months
CARACAS, February 15th. / TASS /. The situation in Venezuela seemed to evolve rapidly when opposition leader Juan Guaydo announced on January 23 that he assumed the powers of the president of the country, and the United States immediately recognized him in that capacity. However, over the past three weeks, street fighting did not start in Caracas, as was the case in 2017, the Colombian army did not invade the country, American planes did not fly overhead. The Bolivarian Republic lives a normal life and sets itself up for a long struggle between the government and the opposition, which can last for weeks or even months.
Calm atmosphere
The two main political groups behave as if they do not notice the opponents. On February 10, President Nicolas Maduro opened the largest military exercises in the history of the country, spoke on February 11 at an event promoting tourism in Venezuela, and on February 12 on Youth Day he rewarded teenagers in Bolivar Square in the center of Caracas on achievements in school and sports, 50 meters from the stronghold opposition - the parliament building.
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The National Assembly, chaired by Juan Guaydo, whose appointment to this post was canceled by the Supreme Court, also continues its work. There are weekly meetings at which plans are approved for the organization of the transition period, managers are appointed to the state oil company PDVSA and its subsidiary in the United States Citgo Petroleum. Security is provided by the National Guard. Guaydo attends various social events in Caracas, where he calls to support the delivery of humanitarian aid to Venezuela.
Even major opposition rallies on February 2 and 12 were completely calm. The government, unlike the practice of previous years, this time is not trying to control the actions of the protesters with the help of the army or the National Guard. Thousands of crowds gathered in the morning on the Avenue of Francisco de Miranda, listened to the speech of Guaydo and went home for dinner. Break through the city center to government buildings and build tent cities, despite the warm weather in Caracas, where even at night the temperature does not fall below 15 degrees Celsius, no one tried.
A peaceful atmosphere reigns in Bolivar Square, where public government events are usually held. There continues the collection of signatures against possible American intervention in the affairs of Venezuela. Began with the mass media support from the speech of the president himself, he is now in a calm mode.
"Life in Caracas is an art"
Talking about normal life in Caracas, however, can only be conditional. Russians living in the city share tips: not to walk the streets in the evening (in some areas the evening is considered to be around 4:00 pm), not to dress brightly, not to use a telephone on the street. In the subway of Caracas, you rarely see people buried in a cell phone, and neighboring passengers can advise such a passenger to quickly hide the phone.
Periodically in the city limit the flow of electricity. Then the traffic lights, elevators stop working, the trains stop walking along some metro lines. On February 8, the lights were turned off at the Miraflores presidential residence right during the Maduro press conference for foreign media. Power supply was immediately restored from backup power sources.
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Residents of the city are accustomed to such outages. "Life in Caracas is an art", - one of them shares his impressions.
It is difficult to get cash in the country - there are restrictions on withdrawing money at an ATM. The minimum wage is about ten dollars, although the exact figure depends on the rate at which the calculation is conducted. A kilogram of meat in a store may cost about three dollars in terms of bolivars. Exchanging dollars and euros for bolivars at the black market rate is offered a stone’s throw from Bolivar Square.
Distribution of food packages is organized at many enterprises. As the Deputy Chairman of the Venezuelan Unified Socialist Party, created by Hugo Chavez, said in an interview with TASS, the country's government sends about $ 120 million to social assistance every month.
However, in Venezuela, there are people who can afford to buy meat in stores. The eastern districts of the city are quite prosperous, there are cozy quiet streets, and the houses are fenced with two-meter walls. A completely different picture in the slum "barrios" in the west of the city, where small houses are molded on the slopes of the mountains.
Government supporters are convinced that the difficult economic situation is the result of US sanctions, while opposition supporters impose responsibility on the government, accusing it of corruption and ineffective management.
Waiting for a change
How this political crisis will be resolved, nobody seems to know. Government supporters say the crisis needs to be endured. Maduro is not going to give up power and call a presidential election, although, in his opinion, it is possible to hold elections to the National Assembly.
Through the mechanism of the Constitutional Assembly (established in 2017, the body to develop a new constitution), consultations with the people on the possibility of holding parliamentary elections have already been launched. Usually it’s just meeting people in the regions of Caracas and the province. Participants in such discussions are often recipients of social assistance from the state. The Venezuelan government does not name a timeline when consultations will end, although they promise that this will happen soon.
The opposition is also in no hurry. Parliament is working on the formation of a new National Electoral Commission. Its representatives are planning to hold presidential elections within a year after Maduro leaves the presidency. How to achieve this, they cannot say for sure, and they also intend to tolerate: to wait until the head of state leaves his post as a result of domestic and international pressure.
Hope for the world
Supporters of both the government and the opposition claim that they do not expect a force scenario. Maduro's opponents tried to resort to similar actions in 2017, but it all ended in futile clashes, deaths and arrests of protesters. Another tactic has been chosen: to try to convince the population of the country and the international community of the legitimacy of their actions.
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This calculation is partly justified. Some countries, including the United States, have already recognized Guaido as the current president, and on February 12, the opposition managed to hold a rally of thousands of people. The exact number of its participants is difficult to determine, but the eight-lane avenue of Francisco de Miranda 1.5 - 2 km was filled with people.
The dark horse in this situation is humanitarian aid, which is initiated by the opposition in the town of Cucuta on the territory of Colombia near the border with Venezuela. February 23, as announced by Guaydo, an attempt will be made to deliver this assistance to the country. If the army tries to interfere, it can lead to an armed clash that could explode the situation.
However, so far none of the tough scenarios that were talked about in Caracas in recent days has come true. On February 12, the opposition did not go to the Miraflores Palace, and the government forces did not attempt to occupy the building of the National Assembly. Opposition supporters themselves in private conversations recognize that Maduro is unlikely to aggravate, because this will give rise to interference from the United States or Colombia.
"Kaleidoscope" forces
The division of the political forces of Venezuela into government and opposition is to some extent arbitrary. Both sides do not represent a single force. In 2016, 11 parties and two independent deputies were elected to the Venezuelan parliament as part of the opposition "Block of Democratic Unity". By the number of mandates, the party of Juan Guaydo "Narodnaya Volya" is in third place (14 out of 167 mandates), behind the parties "Justice First" (33 places) and "New Time" (18 places).
The situation with the ideological definition of government opponents is difficult. Party "New time" and "Narodnaya Volya" adhere to the social-democratic ideas and are members of the Socialist International. The United Socialist Party, headed by Maduro, adheres to the ideas of socialism. In Venezuela, not right and left, but different views on socialism are fighting for power.
The lines of the political split in Venezuela are sometimes quite intricate. A member of the National Assembly of Delso Solorzano, ardently opposing Maduro, claims that her sister died four years ago because there were no necessary drugs in the country due to the economic crisis, and it was impossible to get them from abroad. Her father at the same time remained a supporter of Maduro. They have not spoken to each other for several years.
In search of a leader
Due to the fragmentation of the opposition in its ranks there is no unity regarding the leader. Popular on social networks in Venezuela, opposition activist Eric del Buffalo explains that government opponents recognize Juan Guaydo because he was able to re-launch the protest movement after a lull in 2018, but his fate will depend on the development of events. Many do not see Guaydo as a candidate for the presidential elections planned by the opposition, suggesting that his political “father” and leader of the “Narodnaya Volya” Leopoldo Lopez, who is now under house arrest, will appear in this capacity.
The opposition in Venezuela clusters around Guaydo, but retains different views on the situation.
Other possible candidates include former Miranda Governor Enrique Capriles Radonsky, representing the Justice First Party (Miranda State is the second most populous region in development in Venezuela), and former Chavist Henri Falcon, who lost Maduro in last year’s election.
The transition of the Chavista to the opposition is not unusual for Venezuela. Sometimes even former ministers of Chávez criticize the president, and in private conversations - employees of the current authorities. Supporters of Chavism speak about possible candidates, who believe that Maduro could not adequately continue the work of his predecessor as president.
The names of the current governor of the state of Miranda, Hector Rodriguez, and the chairman of the Constitutional Assembly Diosdado Cabello are most often mentioned. Hector Rodriguez is supported by supporters of the liberalization of Chavism, Cabello - those who support the strengthening of the socialist direction. Representatives of both groups are united by ideas about the need to restore order in management and the fight against corruption.
Prepared by S.V.Khristenko February 16, 2019
